Brisbane’s market has been busy recently, without delivering strong capital growth. It has in common with most of the nation’s capital cities a reluctance to join Sydney in a property boom.
It’s overdue for a period of growth because it’s been an under-achiever in the recent past. It ranks fifth among the eight state and territory capitals for long-term capital growth, well behind (in order of ranking) Perth, Melbourne, Darwin and Sydney.
Based on Domain figures for the average annual growth in median prices over the past 10 years, the top 20 suburbs in Perth all have growth rates between 9% and 10% per year. Brisbane’s top 20, bar one, are between 6% and 7% per year.
Brisbane averages have been dragged down by poor performance in the past four years. City markets took time to recover from the floods of early 2011. In the years since, Perth, Darwin, Sydney and Melbourne have all had periods of price growth ranging from solid to strong, but Brisbane has yet to join the growth party.
Parts of the Brisbane metropolitan area have out-performed, but the average citywide performance has been lukewarm.
Looking at the figures describing growth rates for the past 10 years, Brisbane currently has only one suburb with a growth rate above 7% (Hendra, which averages 7.6%). All of the other Top 20 suburbs have long-term growth rates between 6.0% and 6.9%.
The leading precinct is Brisbane Northside – the northern suburbs of the Brisbane City Council area – which provides the top four suburbs and six of the top 10. This area is prominent in terms of capital growth rates because it led the upturn in sales activity in the city market in 2013 and 2014 – and many suburbs have recorded double-digit annual price growth in the past 12 months, lifting their long-term growth rates.
The Brisbane Northside suburbs, and indeed most of the suburbs on the Top 20 list, represent Brisbane’s middle market. The 12 most expensive suburbs in the Brisbane region have median house prices in the range from $900,000 to $1.2 million. The middle market is the next tier below that – and that’s the market that leads on capital growth rates.
All but one of the Top 20 have median prices below $900,000. Fourteen of the Top 20 have median prices in the $600,000s and $700,000s. There are currently no bottom-end suburbs on the list – only two have medians below $600,000.
I expect a different result a year from now, as many of the cheaper markets are now rising across the Brisbane metropolitan area and are likely to experience good price growth, lifting their long-term growth rates.
Brisbane’s most expensive suburbs have been mediocre performers – only one of the 12 priciest suburbs features on the Top 20 list for capital growth rates. Only four of them have capital growth rates above 6%.
The worst performing precinct has been the Moreton Bay Regional Council area in the far north of the Greater Brisbane area. Seven of the Bottom 20 suburbs are located there. This may change in the near future, as this precinct is one of the areas with elevated sales activity, as the momentum ripples out from the neighbouring Brisbane Northside precinct.
BRISBANE TOP 20 – ANNUAL GROWTH % OVER 10 YEARS
|No.||SUBURB||MUNICIPALITY||MEDIAN||GROWTH RATE %|
|11||Fig Tree Pocket||Brisbane-West||$934,000||6.2|
|16||Upper Mt Gravatt||Brisbane-South||$550,000||6.1|
|18||Eight Mile Plains||Brisbane-South||$619,000||6.0|